OH NO! The Great Game is Coming to Get Us!

Why has Obama cosied up to the Islamic world? Is it a new start in Eisav/Yishmoel relations? An appeasement of a more dynamic foe?

Or is it good, old fashioned USA/Russia maneuvering?

Russia is “best friends” with Iran. Iran has oil. Iran wants to extend hegemony over the Middle East; more oil. Russia has supplied part for nuclear reactors to Iran and has at least tried to supply advanced weaponry to Syria.

Geographically Russia neighbours Iran and the Central Asian ‘stans. This combined with the alliance with the Iran-Syria-Hizbollah axis but Russia in a potentially very powerful position in the Middle East and greater Islamic world.

Israel gets military aid from the USA. Hamas and Hizbollah get financial and military aid from Iran. Is it far fetched to imagine that some of this may be paid for by frustrated ex-great power Russia?

This being the case, the Israel/Palestine conflict takes on new significance as a USA/Russia proxy war.

If the USA can limit Iranian, (Russian), influence in the area by appearing to alter its relations with the Islamic world and instead increase its own influence, countering Russian geographic advantage with a charm offensive, then a reliable oil supply can be secured for America, at its long time rival’s expense. A sensible move, especially in a recession.

This game could continue, with attendant proxy conflicts for some time.



See this article from The Asia Times Online from 2007 discussing Russian ambitions in the area.
Moscow raises Gulf Spirits

Putin's Middle East tour visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan on Feb 11-13 (besides being the first ever visit to Saudi Arabia by a Soviet/Russian head of state) glitteringly reveals the Moscow's proactive intent for the region, says Abdul Ruff Colachal.

As the USA that has maintained the "identical views" with Israel on international issues, especially the Middle East crises, is intolerably troubled in Gulf waters, Russia, a UNSC veto member, has come out openly to soothe the wounded pride of the Arabs caused by the war strategies of the US-led forces with both cooperative gestures and slamming of US foreign policy that has over years made the world more insecure and terribly dangerous. Focused on balanced relations across the globe, Russian President Vladimir Putin's diplomacy moves ahead to consolidate its role in the Middle East, too. Putin's Middle East tour visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Jordan on Feb 11-13 (besides being the first ever visit to Saudi Arabia by a Soviet/Russian head of state) glitteringly reveals the Moscow's proactive intent for the region. Russia seems to be keen to play an independent role in the region by hosting an international conference on West Asia.
Determined to transform Russia's Cold-War image as a regional instigator and arms proliferator into one of a peacemaker and stabilizer, Mr. Putin, who took Russia from its chaotic existence in 1990 to new heights in economic, political and military terms by 2004 with politico-economic ties extended to both West and East, stepped right on to American turf and challenged the position the United States enjoyed as the chief power broker in West Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union 1992. The Arabs as other Muslims profoundly worried by the way the United States appears to have lost its mind after 9/11, embarking on a world-wide campaign against real and imaginary enemies. Putin's tour coincided with the Palestinian peace process set in motion by the King's initiative to ensure a Unity government by Hamas and Fatah. The Palestinian factions have just finished a round of talks in the holy city of Makkah on forming a Unity government. Seeing an opportunity to increase Russia's influence in the Middle East, Putin now wants feelings of animosity extinguished and past threats to be forgotten.
With the collapse of US led wars in Middle East, spoiling the US image as a great super power eager to lead the world on democratic and enlightened path, Russia seeks to reassert its influence in the region. Putin's advantage in West Asia is Russia's century long ties with Muslim nations in Middle East and Central Asia, the latter was a part of the USSR until 1991 when the mighty nation collapsed and disintegrated. The cooperative activities during his historic visit in mid February to Saudi Arabia, followed by Qatar and Jordan were in line with the wishes expressed by Russian President Vladimir Putin for purposeful ties. Formation of the Unity government and US-Israeli-Palestinian talks likely later this month, Russian and Saudi pressure to restart peace talks would serve well to provide momentum. President Putin, reiterated his proposal made during his first ever visit to Israel and Egypt in 2005 to hold an international conference on the Middle East peace process in Moscow later this year. Putin said the other three members of the Middle East "quartet" - the United States, the United Nations and the European Union - as well as "all the states concerned" would be invited to attend the conference.
The king of Saudi Arabia rolled out a carpet to welcome Putin, a rare gesture of the Kingdom to foreign dignitaries. Saudi and Russia are the world's top most oil producers. Lending credence to its claim as a global champion of energy security, Russia extracted 9.236 million barrels per day (mbpd) of oil in June 2006 - 46,000 barrels more than Saudi Arabia - and its oil supply is expected to average 9.9 mbpd in 2007. As a result, Riyadh wants its own "energy dialog" with Moscow , which has been facilitated in some way through the five-year oil-and-gas cooperation agreement signed during the landmark visit of Crown Prince Abdullah in 2003.The economic agreements with Saudi Arabia and Qatar occupied priority space in Kremlin's diplomacy.
Among the three nations he visited on his business tour, Putin has achieved maximum success in Saudi Arabia, while in Qatar, the gas giant of the region, the proposal for OPEC for Gas regime, or Gas Cartel, was generally addressed. Putin also promised that Russia would help Saudi Arabia develop a national nuclear program as well as launching several Saudi satellites in addition to the seven already boosted into orbit by a Russian missile in 2005. Addressing Saudi businessmen and financiers, Putin called on them to open Saudi banks in Russia. Putin also promised that Russia would help Saudi Arabia develop a national nuclear program as well as launching several Saudi satellites in addition to the seven already boosted into orbit by a Russian missile in 2005.
Russia and Qatar discussed establishing a mechanism to coordinate the supply of natural gas across the globe. In Qatar he held talks with Emir Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, who also backed the proposal of Middle East Conference. Moscow and Doha are also engaged in intensifying bilateral energy cooperation, with Gazprom expressing interest in joint gas production and refining projects in Qatar. As Russia is diversifying its arms clients beyond China and India – after losing out on the Syrian, Iraqi and Libyan markets – the Gulf countries too are looking for a basket of suppliers beyond the United States. Though Russia is the world's third largest weapons exporter after the United States and Great Britain, at $7.1 billion, Russia sold more weapons than the US in 2005.Europe imports nearly 44 per cent of its gas supplies from Russia, and the European Union leaders have said they would oppose Russian moves towards forming a cartel. Moscow justifies its resolve without confronting the West.
Jordan has more political significance for Moscow, than economic. Discussions surrounding regional stabilization plans also to touch upon anti-terror cooperation in the face of common threats and challenges, but in a lighter vein. While the Gulf countries have been largely successful in controlling the threat posed by "extremists and militants", Moscow is still hotly pursuing the so-called “Chechan separatists”, who have had sympathizers and supporters in the Gulf. However, by involving itself with the Iranian nuclear issue as a 'honest broker', Russia also attempts to help the scenario in Iraq, where Iran's influence in the internal politics of the war-torn country destroyed by the US-led forces is increasing every day, posing a threat to the unity of the country and throwing up the possibility of the conflict spilling over to the neighboring countries. Apart from economic interests, it is in this context that Putin is visiting Jordan.
Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran figured prominently in the talks held by the Russian leader with Arab leaders. While Afghanistan is being looted and destroyed as part of the establishing a so-called democratic world and the Afghans being massacred and tortured by the NATO forces, supported by several countries including Israel and India even with their resources, the US-Israel combine is fully focused on eliminating countries like Palestine, Lebanon and Iran. Justifiably worried for their own security, Iran and its local friends - Syria, Lebanon and Palestine - have been attempting to challenge and contain American and Israeli power. If you hit us, they say, we will hit you back. This is legitimate and they have achieved some vague success. They know that the Western world, too, has its interests -- in the free flow of oil, for example, and in using phrases like regime change, democracy and pluralistic system.
During a three-day tour of West Asia in April 2005, Mr. Putin had paid the first ever visit by a Russian or Soviet leader to Israel and Palestine and the first such visit to Egypt after 1965. Proactive role of Egypt and Syria is vital in resolving the Middle East Conflict, involving Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. Egypt and Russia enjoyed close ties until the 1970s when Egypt turned to the US which has since become its most strategic foreign partner, his policy is aimed at bolstering Russia's political and economic relations with Egypt.
Russia strongly opposes the Israeli invasions of Lebanon and Palestine, though Kremlin strives to keep the Israelis in good humors. Israel's intermittent wars with the Palestinians and Lebanese have been a serious irritant in resolving the crises because the USA and UK support Israel and there is a growing lobby the world over for Israel and against the Arabs. Syria wants to redeem its territories on Golan Heights it lost, when Israel with US support annexed them. Moscow has maintained strong economic ties with Syria.
USA and Israel are concerned about their security alone, while they cause insecurity for the rest of the world. A balance of power means respect for everyone's interests, not only Israel's or USA's. The problem with US is that it is keen that no one country in the West Asia, other than Israel, should possess nuclear weapons. When the story about Iraq possessing WMD has been exposed badly, Iran is accused of threatening the world with its new nuclear program. They insist that there is a danger to the Middle East and world at large until Iran comes clean about its real intentions, all those supplying it with arms and extending nuclear cooperation must cease to do so. Going any further at this stage would only strengthen Iran's ambitions to dominate the Middle East even more.
Putin’s visit made Moscow's political as well as economic intent for the Middle East amply clear. The Kremlin sees the Middle East the most disturbed region of the globe today and the USA is the cause of it. Putin did not hesitate to scold Washington, now controlled by neo-cons, for what he sees as its contribution to the prevailing insecurity and chaos all over the world. There was a hue and cry when , on the eve of his visit to Riyadh, Putin made a historical, confrontational speech in the presence of, among others, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, against American foreign policy at a prestigious European security conference in Munich, accusing Washington of unilateralism. Some commentators said revived the spirit of Cold War now. Putin is absolutely right when he states that the Bush administration has undermined the UN, made a dangerous mess in the Gulf, and threatens to ignite a strategic arms race by modernizing the US nuclear arsenal and planning to deploy ballistic missile defense systems (BMD) in Poland and the Czech Republic. Moscow resented the NATO expansion to include East European nations, excluding Russia, which sees itself as a primarily European rather than Asian nation.
Engagement of both Arabs and Israel by USA and Russia is the only way to achieve a qualitative shift in the Middle East peace process by a developed partnership between the US and Russia, which Russia strives to achieve, despite the aggressive rhetoric. The "Gulf ball" thus is in the court of both Moscow and Washington, confusing the world even more. Presumably, the rhetoric was meant to reiterate the Kremlin resolve to forge strong relations with West Asian nations against the wishes of the US. Cold war would escalate the regional tension further. Some Middle East countries like Iran and Syria will no doubt be immensely reassured by Putin's remarks, but so will Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states who are eagerly seeking to diversify their international relations so as to reduce their dependence on a dangerously volatile United States.
Russia does not have direct boarders with West Asia, but through buffer zones created by the former Soviet republics and sea-lake waters. Putin administration’s resolve to regain its “legitimate” control over the former Soviet republics, baring a couple of Central Asian states and Belarus, has not materialized as yet. On the contrary, some of them like Georgia and Ukraine have drifted to the Western side. Moscow's efforts to control them all by using energy diplomacy have not favored Kremlin significantly. Moscow forecasts that once relations with Middle East are strengthened, the Central Asia and other regions around Russia would become friendly and non-threatening, if not beneficial, to Moscow.
Iran’s desperation to take Saudi into confidence of peaceful nature of its nuclear program apart, there have been intense diplomatic efforts between US and Russia on Iran in the recent past, particularly after the increased US naval presence in the region heightened tension. US is devoid of sensible policy in Middle East. While the Gulf countries undoubtedly resist Iran's nuclear foray, they also fear that any US military misadventure would wreak further havoc in the region. In this context, just as Russia can use its influence with Iran to insist on peaceful nuclear program, it can also use its influence in the United Nations Security Council to block any unwarranted action.
Most important, Russia's main concerns remain to revolve around the escalation between the US and Iran, not because it expects US military action, but because tension would lead to the deployment of advanced US missile systems near Russian borders, which Moscow perceives as a threat to Russian security. It depends on whether the USA is genuinely seeking a constructive role in the region; for just as the US administration should rid itself of the 'Cold War victory' complex and start thinking outside the box .Reluctance to come to terms with reality in the region would, eventually, lead USA to dustbin of history, leaving Russia, Japan and China in the centre of international politics.
The BBC's Russian affairs analyst Steven Eke says that Mr. Putin's tour of these pro-western Middle Eastern nations comes at a time when Moscow's disillusionment with the West is growing. Putin's tour of Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Jordan, is the first of its kind in the history of diplomatic links between Russia and the Gulf region. But the absence of a profound, coherent Russian Middle East policy, however, gives rise to confusion about Moscow's long-term goals in the region. Perhaps if Russian president Vladimir Putin is able to assert the power of Kremlin to challenge US unilateralism, Russia will continue to become a more responsible player in the Middle East, acting with a greater sense of strategic vision.
Aiming at consolidating Moscow's ties with the Arab world, Putin completed his historic three-day visit to the Middle East on a positive note. There is no need to speculate about the return of Russia to the region as a strategic competitor. Russia is becoming a fairly important player in global politics whose influence stems largely from its permanent seat in the UN Security Council and its consequent ability to affect regional developments in the Persian Gulf. And although Russia's influence is also translated into the ability to sell weapons, Moscow is unlikely to return to the Middle East as a deliberate and aggressive country that proliferates conventional or weapons of mass destruction (WMD) technology. The US is deeply worried about the outcomes of Putin’s West Asian tour and working overnight to set its policy right in the Gulf region.
Dr. Abdul Ruff Colachal is a Research Scholar at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.